THE STOCK MARKET AND PRESIDENT TRUMP
“Navigating the Financial Markets in the Storm of Volatility”. This is our trademarked slogan which conveys the importance of keeping our retirees abreast of the reasons behind the turbulence, our actions with their money and future direction of the market. Investors do not want advisors who have no idea where the stock market is going, instead they want advisors to provide clarity and have a disciplined approach moving forward for “Peace of Mind”.
This is our periodic Cantu Tactical Wealth Management investor’s report covering 9 topics and a stock market forecast for March 11, 2025. The topics are as follows.
9. Purchases we have made during this market correction.
ANALYSIS
1. Losses are incurred in the market due to “the Uncertainty” and S&P 500. It is down about 10% off the high.
2. Only the President, truly knows how these tariff negotiations and reciprocity work. Today in Ontario, Canada has pulled back on their electricity tariff and President Trump followed by pulling back 25% off aluminum and steel tariff of 50%. Keep in mind the Prime Minister has imposed additional tariffs.
3. In determining where the bottom may be? When the VIX, which measures market volatility, hits 27 the stock market historically, rebounds. This past week it cracked the 27 mark and closed at 30. From our analysis we are at a near-term “bottom”of a market. This past earnings season we had companies averaging a strong 14% annual growth rate adding to the comfort for a rebound.
4. Wall Street is figuring out that Tariffs may not impact technology stocks as much as others. As a result, our accounts were up today, March 11, 2025, because we hold approximately one third position in this industry sector.
5. About our strategy before April 2nd? We will be focusing on stocks clawing their way back “up” and maybe making some moderate changes along the way into stock positions we see moving up.
6. Let’s face it, everyone on the planet knows Tariffs will be imposed on April 2nd. We believe these losses are already “baked” into our current stock market correction. That is why the market is so low. Also, is it quite possible that many sellers may buy on April 2nd, 2025? After April 2nd our firm will key on industries and stocks which are oversold looking for opportunities on the expected rebound?
7. We believe the market will recover by the end of July 2025 to February 1st values. Why? Because, historically, July is the strongest earnings reporting quarter of the year.
8. Moving forward in mitigating losses we will use our moving average indicators, as we have done before. The reason we did not use them in 2025 was because in 2024, the stock market rebounded so rapidly with virtually a similar economy.
9. We have made some minor changes in this market correction. Adjustments have been made with some additional technological purchases and we recently bought McDonald’s and a digital currency exchange stock in certain account strategies.
STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE
Now let’s take one giant step back and look at the stock marketfrom the big overall picture by comparing it to the past. This is not the first time the government workforce has been reduced in size with firings. President Clinton cut 25% of the government workforce in the nineties. There was the technology sector booming at the same time with everyone getting ready for Y2Kwhen the planes were supposed to fall out of the sky. Ha! Do you remember that? What was the result? The American economy had a good surplus and the stock market rallied for the next 5 years from 1995 until the year 2000.
Today we are experiencing similar actions by this administration. Government spending and regulations are beginning to be cut. Taxes are being lowered, and this should lead to higher corporate profit margins. And we have our own technological boom with “AI”, artificial intelligence. My guess, just as in the nineties, this will lead to a higher stock market run.It’s interesting how history has a way of repeating itself.
Now on tariffs, we believe President Trump is giving the world alesson on “The Art of the Deal”. Again, only he really understands how and when to use this tool in his Presidential “Toolbox”. Plus, the global population is not increasing at abnormal rate, as a matter of fact, it is increasing at an exponential rate!
CONCLUSION
In conclusion. Our short-term forecast, which means less than one year, is that the stock market will recover to higher ground. Our long-term forecast, which means greater than one year, is for the stock market to have expansion over the next three years due to artificial intelligence flowing into the international markets. Combined with the widening global population of spending our expectations are for strengthening markets ahead. Our actions are to remain equity heavy in our retirement and investment accounts.
And one last important note: The “NASDAQ” exchange has announced it will be moving to 24-hour trading. However, theNew York Stock Exchange has not made that announcement, but since trades are executed electronically, it could be a possibility soon, as well
JOE CANTU BIOGRAPHY
Joe Cantu is Chief Investment Officer of Cantu Tactical Wealth Management. He is a West Point graduate in engineering and economics with 36 years at three of the largest Wall Street firms in the retirement money management profession. Concurrently, for 14 years he taught night college course in “High Net Worth Retirement and Estate Planning”.
DISCLOSURES
Personal opinions are for educational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation. Investing has a risk of loss, and you should consult with your own advisors about any financial decisions. Cantu Tactical Wealth Management and Joe Cantu are a fiduciary firm and registered investment advisor in the States of California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, providing pure independent advice and money management.
